Republican Primary Iowa Caucus Vote Share

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142

Ṁ11k

resolved Jan 16

51%52%

Trump

21%21%

Desantis

19%19%

Haley

8%7%

Ramaswamy

1%0.4%Other

0%0.3%

Hutchinson

Resolves to the vote share of each of the candidates

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For New Hampshire Primary. Resolves using a logistic function of the given vote share. 50% vote share for a candidate will not resolve to 50%:

More accurate predictions and less slippage

@JohnSmithcf7b Does this resolve to the final vote? Caucuses can be weird.

OP's account is deleted and we're using this for the dashboard so I'm gonna add in Vivek and Hutchinson.

@Joshua deleted? wdym?

@JohnSmithcf7b Oh, whoops I meant inactive. And I guess I was also wrong about that 😅

No new polls since Dec 18
Haley has had plenty of momentum in past couple weeks
Iowa prone to wild last minute swings (10 pts to Santorum in 2012, 4 points to Cruz in 2016)
Plausible reason polls may differ: low stake signal of Trump’s strength, but when voters actually have to pick they may go with someone likelier to beat Biden

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