Republican Primary Iowa Caucus Vote Share
#US Politics#2024 Republican Primaries
142
967
Ṁ3.5k
resolved Jan 16
51%52%
Trump
21%21%
Desantis
19%19%
Haley
8%7%
Ramaswamy
1%0.4%Other
0%0.3%
Hutchinson

Resolves to the vote share of each of the candidates

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For New Hampshire Primary. Resolves using a logistic function of the given vote share. 50% vote share for a candidate will not resolve to 50%:

More accurate predictions and less slippage

@JohnSmithcf7b Does this resolve to the final vote? Caucuses can be weird.

OP's account is deleted and we're using this for the dashboard so I'm gonna add in Vivek and Hutchinson.

@Joshua deleted? wdym?

@JohnSmithcf7b Oh, whoops I meant inactive. And I guess I was also wrong about that 😅

bought Ṁ150 of Trump NO

  1. No new polls since Dec 18

  2. Haley has had plenty of momentum in past couple weeks

  3. Iowa prone to wild last minute swings (10 pts to Santorum in 2012, 4 points to Cruz in 2016)

  4. Plausible reason polls may differ: low stake signal of Trump’s strength, but when voters actually have to pick they may go with someone likelier to beat Biden

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