Will US troops participate in a military intervention in Niger?

74

Ṁ1.4kṀ8.9k

resolved Aug 31

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

In the next month, will US troops participate in a military intervention or provide material support to a military intervention intended to oust a military-backed coup in Niger? The US has troops stationed in Niger on mission to fight extremist militias with Niger and regional forces. The Economic Community of West African States has provided the coup a deadline to re-instate the democratically elected president or face an armed intervention. Rumors have swirled that ministers from the deposed government have given permission to French troops to evacuate the president, currently being detained.

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ104
2		Ṁ38
3		Ṁ36
4		Ṁ32
5		Ṁ31

Sort by:

predictedNO

Related market: https://manifold.markets/JohnSmith9249/how-many-members-of-the-economic-co?r=Sm9oblNtaXRoOTI0OQ

How many members of the Economic Community of West African States will deploy military forces in Niger in one month?

1 expected. The Economic Community of West African States has provided the military junta in Niger an ultimatum: restore the president to power or face an invasion. This market will resolve to the number of members of the Economic Community of West African States that deploy military forces into Niger over the next month to back up this ultimatum. This market will resolve to ZERO if there is no invasion. ECWAS members that deploy military forces in Niger in support of Niger will not be counted. There are 14 members of ECWAS other than Niger.

Very small yes bet, since Niger is a uranium source and I can see the US looking to frustrate Russian control of that

predictedNO

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-sees-narrow-opportunity-reverse-course-niger-after-coup-2023-07-31/

US sees narrow opportunity to reverse course in Niger after coup

There is a narrow opportunity to reverse last week’s military takeover in Niger and U.S. diplomatic and military posture there will depend on whether the democratically elected government is reinstated in the coming days and week, a senior U.S. official said on Monday.

People are also trading

Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?

-20% 1d37% chance

Will US troops be deployed to Ukraine-Russia border in 2026?

Will US troops be deployed in combat operations in an overseas conflict before end of 2030

Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?

Conditional upon an invasion of Niger, will Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum be restored to de facto control of Niger?

Related questions

Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?

Will US troops be deployed to Ukraine-Russia border in 2026?

Will US troops be deployed in combat operations in an overseas conflict before end of 2030

Will the US have 5 consecutive days of active military operations in Venezuela at any point in 2026?

Conditional upon an invasion of Niger, will Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum be restored to de facto control of Niger?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy