Will US troops participate in a military intervention in Niger?

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1.4kṀ8871

resolved Aug 31

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

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1M

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In the next month, will US troops participate in a military intervention or provide material support to a military intervention intended to oust a military-backed coup in Niger? The US has troops stationed in Niger on mission to fight extremist militias with Niger and regional forces. The Economic Community of West African States has provided the coup a deadline to re-instate the democratically elected president or face an armed intervention. Rumors have swirled that ministers from the deposed government have given permission to French troops to evacuate the president, currently being detained.

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predictedNO

Related market: https://manifold.markets/JohnSmith9249/how-many-members-of-the-economic-co?r=Sm9oblNtaXRoOTI0OQ

How many members of the Economic Community of West African States will deploy military forces in Niger in one month?

1 expected. The Economic Community of West African States has provided the military junta in Niger an ultimatum: restore the president to power or face an invasion. This market will resolve to the number of members of the Economic Community of West African States that deploy military forces into Niger over the next month to back up this ultimatum. This market will resolve to ZERO if there is no invasion. ECWAS members that deploy military forces in Niger in support of Niger will not be counted. There are 14 members of ECWAS other than Niger.

Very small yes bet, since Niger is a uranium source and I can see the US looking to frustrate Russian control of that

predictedNO

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-sees-narrow-opportunity-reverse-course-niger-after-coup-2023-07-31/

US sees narrow opportunity to reverse course in Niger after coup

There is a narrow opportunity to reverse last week’s military takeover in Niger and U.S. diplomatic and military posture there will depend on whether the democratically elected government is reinstated in the coming days and week, a senior U.S. official said on Monday.

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