There is currently much media speculation about the likelihood and impact of blackouts caused by energy shortages in Great Britain this winter.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63458441
This is because the National Grid ESO’s Winter Outlook publication (https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/268346/download) states that should Great Britain suffer a gas shortage in combination with an unexpected reduction in continental power imports, “it may be necessary to initiate the planned, controlled and temporary rota load shedding scheme under the Electricity Supply Emergency Code (ESEC)”. This is colloquially referred to as “rolling blackouts”.
This market will resolve YES if the load shedding scheme described above is initiated by the National Grid between 1st October 2022 and 1st April 2023, and NO in all other cases.
(NB: the title of this question refers to the UK for the ease of international traders. However, NGESO and thus this market only pertains to Great Britain, as Northern Ireland is part of the Irish grid. Rolling blackouts in Northern Ireland will not cause this market to resolve YES).
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ90 | |
| 2 | Ṁ60 | |
| 3 | Ṁ41 | |
| 4 | Ṁ33 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
There is no more natural gas sortage in Europe. Winter is mild. French nuclear power plants have restarted and can sell electricity if needed.
https://manifold.markets/Zardoru/will-planned-electricity-shutdowns
