Russia attacks a NATO member before 2031?
30
100Ṁ26762030
53%
chance
15
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market assesses the probability of Russia initiating a military incursion into any NATO member state before the end of 2030. An incursion is defined as unauthorized military entry into the territory of a NATO member. Resolution will be based on credible reports from major news outlets such as Reuters and the Associated Press.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Russia attacks NATO by 2030?
43% chance
Will Russia attack NATO before 2034?
41% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
2% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
20% chance
Will Russia launch a military invasion of a NATO country by 2033?
46% chance
Will Russia retaliate militarily on any non-participating member of NATO before the end of 2025?
12% chance
Will Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
8% chance
Will Russia join NATO before 2050?
13% chance
If there is Russia-NATO war by 2030, which NATO country gets invaded the first?
Will Russia join NATO BY 2040?
5% chance