Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if an agreement or treaty between Iran and Oman is finalized and implemented that prohibits military vessels from transiting the Strait of Hormuz, which legally or physically prevents U.S. military vessels (including the 5th Fleet) from passing through the strait to enter or exit the Persian Gulf.

This market resolves to NO if:

• No such treaty is finalized and implemented by the cutoff date.

• A treaty is finalized but does not ban U.S. military vessels from transiting the strait.

• The blockade is lifted and military transit resumes without such restrictions.

• All US military vessels exit the gulf before the treaty is finalized, or a specific carve-out is written which allows the 5th fleet transit out first.

• 2026 ends without such a policy being enacted.

Specifications:

• Cutoff Date: Unless edited by the creator, this market will resolve based on the status of the treaty as of December 31, 2026. The market creator is encouraged to edit this description to specify an alternative resolution date.

• Sources: Resolution will be determined using reports from reputable maritime and international news agencies (such as The Maritime Executive or Reuters) or official press releases from the U.S. Department of Defense / CENTCOM.

Background

In August 2026, during the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis, Iran and Oman progressed toward a bilateral transit agreement to manage shipping traffic through the strategic waterway. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that under the proposed framework, "no military vessel will be permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz" once the agreement becomes binding.

Such a ban would severely isolate the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet, which operates out of Bahrain. Because Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar have no coastlines outside the Persian Gulf, a complete ban on military transits would prevent U.S. warships from entering or exiting the Gulf. While Iran and Oman have agreed on geographical coordinates and a revenue-sharing model, the U.S. strongly opposes the deal, and final implementation remains subject to ongoing diplomatic and military tensions.

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