Given:
Vercel is highly dependant on React
Vercel's roadmap is likely different to Meta's
Vercel has hired a lot of highly respected and talented web engineers
Will Vercel create a separately maintained fork of the React Codebase before 2024?
Resolves posively if before 2024, Vercel both:
announces publicly that they intend to fork the React codebase and maintain the fork independently of the Meta React core-team
forks the React repository (private or public) and makes at least one commit that is not intended to be merged back into the Meta React codebase
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Doubtful page incase you want to suggest improved resolution criteria: https://doubtful.app/question/will-vercel-fork-the-react-codebase-in-2023