Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2031, a decentralized platform that aims to provide a similar or superior service to GitHub has been widely recognized as a major competitor. This platform must meet the following criteria:
Decentralized Nature: The platform must operate on a decentralized network, such as a blockchain or other distributed ledger technology, without a single point of control.
User Base: It must have a substantial user base, comparable to or exceeding 15% of GitHub's active monthly users.
Repository and Project Hosting: The platform should host a significant number of repositories and projects, with both the quality and breadth of projects comparable to GitHub.
Recognition: It must be recognized by reputable sources in the technology or software development sectors as a major competitor to GitHub.
Related questions:
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-major-decentralized
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-major-decentralized-jdlirumk7b (this question)
For reference, GitHub's active monthly user statistics can be found here: GitHub Active Users.
The resolution will be based on a combination of user statistics, content analysis, and expert opinions from reputable sources. If these criteria are not met by January 1st, 2031, this question will resolve as NO. If there is weak evidence that this has occurred, but no strong evidence, or if there is a significant debate that a competitor meets this threshold, then this question resolves as N/A.
Related questions
Would https://radicle.xyz/ match your conditions? Do they have a way to measure the number of their users?
Can resolve yes
Git itself is a distributed system and GitLab has currently 30 million users. GitHub has 100 million users.
@AlexbGoode GitLab is not inherently decentralized. It is a web-based DevOps lifecycle tool that provides a Git repository manager providing wiki, issue-tracking, and CI/CD pipeline features, using an open-source license. However, it operates in a client-server model, where the central server hosts the repository and related services, and clients interact with it.
That said, GitLab can be self-hosted, allowing organizations to run their own instance of GitLab on their own infrastructure. This capability provides some level of decentralization because different organizations can run their independent GitLab servers. However, each individual GitLab instance is centralized in its operation and management.
Thank you for your comment! It's important to clarify the distinction here. Git, the version control system, is indeed inherently decentralized, meaning that each copy of a repository contains the complete history, and no central server is required for its operation.
However, this prediction market question is specifically about decentralized platforms that aim to provide a similar or superior service to GitHub as a whole. GitHub is not just a version control system; it's a centralized platform that provides a suite of services including repository hosting, project management, and social coding features, all built around git.
A decentralized competitor to GitHub would be a platform offering these broader functionalities, but operating on a decentralized network (like blockchain or distributed ledger technology) without a single point of control. This means it would need to replicate or exceed the full range of services provided by GitHub, not just the version control aspect.
Hope this clarifies the distinction!
@AlexbGoode basically what chatgpt said but with the other features mentioned above, like issue tracking and CI/CD hosted in a decentralized system. I can add more specifics to the question description to make this more explicit if that's helpful.