Will there be >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?

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resolved Jan 1

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This question resolves to YES if there are >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year end, using reported confirmed cases from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox Jul 9, 7:03am: My Policy = “Betting as usual” Applying the joy_void_joy ontology https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO Jul 9, 7:13am: “monkeypox”= the disease currently being reported as monkeypox, with attribution as monkeypox continuing even if the name is changed

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predictedNO

There is still people betting YES here, maybe I'm missing something, but I think that at most it will get to 83K. In fact:

As of Oct 31 the cumulative number is 77,264, to get to 100,000 in two months would require a daily average of 373. Currently the 7-day rolling average is less than half that, 184.

currently (as Oct 16) there are 73,416 cumulative cases. To make it to 100,000 needs a daily average of 350. The 7-day rolling average has been below 340 for the last 6 days and trending down

predictedNO

@jorge Thanks -- it's closer than I expected

Uh oh. @Gigacasting what are we all missing?

predictedNO

7/10 forecasters from the Swift Center have their 90% confidence below 100,000 cases, the median for 50% confidence is at 45,000 cases https://www.swiftcentre.org/monkeypox-should-we-worry/

predictedYES

@jorge Already out of date.

Ofc there will be. There are about 10 million MSM in the Free World. If only 1% are infected with monkeypox, this will satisfy the criteria. More likely the figure will be closer to 5-10%.

predictedYES

Add in the fact it's seemingly nonfatal for healthy men, so nobody's going to do anything about it.

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