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resolved Jan 1
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This question resolves to YES if there are >=100,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year end, using reported confirmed cases from Our World in Data:
https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox
Jul 9, 7:03am:
My Policy = “Betting as usual”
Applying the joy_void_joy ontology
https://manifold.markets/Angela/repost-under-what-conditions-is-it#AbqapM5wyao8Lr87sJVO
Jul 9, 7:13am:
“monkeypox”= the disease currently being reported as monkeypox, with attribution as monkeypox continuing even if the name is changed
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7/10 forecasters from the Swift Center have their 90% confidence below 100,000 cases, the median for 50% confidence is at 45,000 cases https://www.swiftcentre.org/monkeypox-should-we-worry/
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