Will there be >=85,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by the end of 2022?

resolved Jan 3

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This question resolves to YES if there are >=85,000 confirmed cases of monkeypox worldwide by year end, using the cumulative confirmed cases of December 31, 2022 from Our World in Data: https://ourworldindata.org/monkeypox

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JAAMpredicted NO

And since it didn't happened in December, maybe it will pass 85K in January:

JAAMpredicted NO

Markets for monkeypox in January:

JAAMpredicted NO

Cumulative cases for Dec 31 were 83,940:

JAAMpredicted NO

Related, but only for the US outbreak:

JAAMbought Ṁ50 of NO

I doubt that it will get to 85K, more interesting if it will pass 84K:

nicbought Ṁ30 of NO

The current 7-day average is at around ~90. If that holds for the rest of the year then we'd have around 90 *30 ~ 3000 more cases. We are at 81k right now, that would put us at 84k. Very close but I guess I'm on the other side of 50

1 reply

Martin Randallpredicted YES

@NiclasKupper My technique of looking at the chart and guessing is obviously less sophisticated than other traders here.

Manifold in the WildBot

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