Kansas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932. On Nov 3, 2026, incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, senior pastor of the Church of the Resurrection. Libertarian David Graham is also on the ballot. Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ both rate the race a toss-up.

RESOLUTION

YES if Adam Hamilton wins the Nov 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas.

NO if Roger Marshall or any other candidate wins.

How the winner is determined, in order:

1. An Associated Press race call. I will resolve once AP calls the race.

2. If AP retracts a call, I will wait for a final call.

3. If the race is in a recount, legal challenge, or uncalled status, I will wait for the official certified result from the Kansas State Board of Canvassers, including any completed recount.

4. If nothing is certified by Jan 3, 2027, the market resolves to whoever is seated, or N/A if no one is seated.

NOTES

- Trading stays open during the vote count. Trading on live results is allowed.

- Results from other states, exit polls, and network projections other than AP do not trigger resolution.

- If a candidate withdraws, dies, or is replaced before Election Day, the market resolves based on whether the Democratic nominee wins.

- I won't trade in this market.