Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Kansas, is running against Republican incumbent Roger Marshall. This market resolves based on Hamilton's margin of victory in Johnson County in the November 3, 2026 election.

The margin is calculated as Adam Hamiltons vote percent in Johnson County, minus the second place candidates (likely Roger Marshall) vote share.

• If Hamilton loses Johnson County, resolves Hamilton loses the county.

• For his margin, Associated Press results for Johnson county will be used, however if the AP result is very close to 2 buckets, resolution can wait for certified final results.

• Any results will be rounded to 2 decimal places to resolve this market.

Background info:

Johnson County is the most populous county in Kansas. It is also home to Church of the Resurrection, the church Adam Hamilton co-founded and pastors.

This is a county trending left, Joe Biden in 2020 was the first Democrat to win Johnson County since 1916, winning it by 8.2%.

Kamala improved on this margin, winning the county by 8.4% in 2024, one of the few counties nationwide where Kamala improved on Bidens 2020 performance.

More info on the county: Johnson County, Kansas - Wikipedia