Will GPT-4 be released to the general public before June?
37
72
750
resolved Mar 14
Resolved
YES

Stuff like beta access, alpha access, early access, etc. does not count.

Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any free or paid version of a release that is available to the general public before the end of May 31st (EST) counts (API, playground-only, embedded with a third party, etc.). However, if you have to know someone or be on a waitlist to get access to the release, etc., that does not count.

The release must be branded as "GPT-4" or something substantially similar (e.g., "GpTfour", but not "ChatGPT-Plus"), and that information must be made public before the close date.
Resolution based on my best judgment.

I will not bet in this market.

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From their blog post:
https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

"ChatGPT Plus

ChatGPT Plus subscribers will get GPT-4 access on chat.openai.com with a usage cap. We will adjust the exact usage cap depending on demand and system performance in practice, but we expect to be severely capacity constrained (though we will scale up and optimize over upcoming months)."

From the market criteria:
"Any free or paid version of a release that is available to the general public before the end of May 31st (EST) counts (API, playground-only, embedded with a third party, etc.)."

An integration with ChatGPT Plus would give paid access to the general public, which would be sufficient for YES. The blog post used the future tense ("subscribers will get GPT-4"). Can anyone provide evidence whether this has, in fact, happened yet? I am not a ChatGPT Plus subscriber, so I can't directly check myself.

@JimHays
https://twitter.com/Scholty/status/1635695099387555875?s=20
I do expect this market to resolve YES, but given tweets like the ones in the above thread, I'm going to wait until I have positive confirmation that this has, in fact, happened.

I’ve now seen multiple screenshots showing GPT-4 available in the ChatGPT Plus UI, such as the below, for people who are not on any specific waitlist:

https://twitter.com/SamuelSzuchan/status/1635699290331807755?s=20

It sounds like they are still in the process of rolling it out, so not everyone with a subscription has it, but the people who do have access appear to be members of the general public, and not insiders or gated behind a waitlist.

How does this resolve if it turns out Bing's chatbot is GPT-4?

@IsaacKing It would depend on several factors. Currently, Bing’s chatbot is still behind a waitlist, so that would have to change to resolve YES.

Additionally, I realized something I didn’t specify before: I’m only planning to base this on information available up to the close date. So if it is announced that their chatbot is GPT-4 before the close date that would count, but I won’t hold out for retroactive announcements.