Based in results of the 2024 primaries as reported in the Wall Street Journal.
Edit (7/24/23): He actually has to get on the ballot in at least one state, not just file paperwork. I will resolve early after a few states if the results are obvious.
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@Jim Can you clarify what criteria you are waiting for to resolve this market as NO. Do you need him to miss the filing deadline in all 50 states?
He’s missed the filing deadline in about half of states so far. To make it on other states he’d need to start collecting signatures immediately. There’s no sign of that happening.
@jack If he is a candidate who wins votes in the primary then he has run. If he announces he will run and then changes his mind or something like that and as a result does not end up getting any votes, then that would not count as running for this resolution criteria.
I am open to suggestions for a better criteria.
@JimAusman There are candidates who run but drop out of the race before the primaries.
If you want to use your definition, I'd retitle the question to "Will Youngkin be on the ballot in a 2024 presidential primary" or something like that.
A more common definition for running is whether they file with the FEC (e.g. https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-ron-desantis-file-to-run-for-p)
@jack To me filing to run and actually running are two different things. Applying to run a marathon is not running a marathon. I might want to clarify that he needs to get votes in a certain state, though it can probably resolve pretty early in the race.