Will Glenn Youngkin run for president in 2024?
resolved Jan 14

Resolves YES if Youngkin announces and files paperwork that he intends to seek the GOP nomination for President of the United States. Resolves NO if not.

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predicted NO

According to ballotpedia he’s missed the filing deadline in about half of 50 states so far.

When would this resolve NO? The Republican convention?

predicted NO

@KevinBurke The end date on this market was originally Dec 31st, which made sense. If he didn't file by EOY, he wasn't running. But OP changed the end date for ??? reasons, so now we sit and wait for this to expire No for many months lol.

predicted YES

@Domer I will resolve it NO. And I don’t recall changing the end date and there seems to be no history showing a change but whatever, I agree with you.

bought Ṁ2,000 of NO

Iowa primary is Tuesday. Filing deadlines have past in tons of states

bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
bought Ṁ20 of YES

I think this answer changes if Trump looks vulnerable, especially if his court cases go badly enough.

predicted NO

@Joshua First primary is January 15. "Super Tuesday" is March 5. Texas, California, North Carolina have ballot filing deadlines on December 8, 11, 15th. We won't know anything about court cases until after those deadlines

predicted YES

@Joshua More badly you mean, cause it’s a disaster already.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@KevinBurke I agree it's pretty unlikely, but I think Youngkin is still top of the list if something happens. Heck, if nothing else Trump is an overweight 77 year old man who's under a lot of stress. I think there's at least a 1% chance he dies early enough for Youngkin to get in.

predicted YES

@Joshua Now is the time to Julius Cesar him or whatever. Ides of March y’all! He is distracted. Plus After yesterday it should be clear that self-described “guy who got rid of Roe” is unelectable. And after Trump’s unhinged behavior on the stand this week in NY court he has fucked all chances of any court ever helping him. Maybe that woman in Florida who clearly appointed as a fail safe in case he was charged in Palm Beach. I still stand by my prediction that Trump will do about as well as Barry Goldwater if he is the nominee. The smart move is to be the VP and elevate someone else to be “the guy” and then control them all the while avoiding prosecution because VP has same immunity as president.

predicted YES

Hmmm, yeah another way this could resolve yes is that he picks Glenn to be his VP candidate and then he drops out for whatever reason. Unlikely, but possible!

bought Ṁ0 of NO

Youngkin's party got crushed in Virginia today. Democrats retained control of the Senate and might gain the House

predicted NO

@KevinBurke Y would be a tempting lotto... if it were the beginning of 2023. Ain't nobody serious hopping into the R primary at this point

predicted YES

@VerySeriousPoster I don't know. If he plays it right he can come in and clearly articulate why he lost in Virginia and why the party must change its strategy or be doomed a year from now. He is certainly more handsome and charismatic than the others. Imagine how insecure Desantis will be standing next to Youngkin, who appears to be quite tall. Oh and he looks like he smells like money. Plus Republicans love a loser now more than ever.

predicted NO

@BTE I have no doubt he could be competitive in the primary. He's the rare one who could appeal to both Haley and Desantis voters.

But it's rare for serious competitors to enter this late, and I'd want compelling evidence before I assume it'll happen.

predicted NO
bought Ṁ16 of YES
bought Ṁ10 of YES

Just posted to the Drudge Report.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Hey is it correct that this market closes at the end of 2023?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

@Joshua No I will extend it.

predicted YES

@KevinBurke He is obviously going to announce after the November elections in Virginia. This could not be more obvious. He has nothing to lose because I’m Virginia governors cannot serve consecutive terms so he is gonna be out of a job in two years anyway. Literally nothing to lose and everything to gain. This tweet is from a short term thinker. Happily take all your mana.

@BTE I'm inclined to agree with you here, but your sentiment seems a little egotistical, especially considering Kevin Burke has a better looking profit graph than yours.

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr IMO profit graphs for bots are not really comparable to those of human traders because they are always present and participating. This is why the founders keep @acc off the leaderboard I imagine, it doesn't play fair. Plus if you read carefully my comment wasn't directed at Kevin, but rather at the author of the tweet he posted. And the last sentence about taking his mana, for now at least I am backing up my words with mana...

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr Full disclaimer, I have to say I am inclined to strongly warn against any inclination anyone may have to agree with me 😉

@BTE What's that supposed to mean? You want YES shares for cheap?

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr Of course, but seriously my confidence levels are almost always dangerously high because I also have no qualms with changing my mind abruptly and with equal confidence. I believe @Mira has previously commented on my tendency to do this in markets related to politics in particular, which is what made me notice it about myself.

@BTE I'm surprised you caught on that overbetting above your confidence is usually the way to go on Manifold. Most people stick to pure probability theory. I'm impressed, and I do the same thing(make trades that make no sense if priced using hold-until-expiration probability).

I guess botlab trading against you so hard makes it easier to figure out, but the other part is Manifolders have a tendency to take profits early as the probability gets more extreme and rarely update their opinions based on soft news. That tendency makes a high-confidence bet more like a 50/50 in risk/reward.

It's wrong on something like e.g. a coinflip or dice roll, but better for something like "will x run for President?" where there's tons of weak news to pay attention to.

@Mira I feel like it heavily depends on the market. You have to try to predict what other people will think based on the news rather than how it will end. If other people don't think the news will change much then you're better off not overbetting.

predicted YES

@Mira I think that was my natural inclination and you helped me see how that could be an effective strategy for markets where, like you say, base rates are way overrated. Our current political paradigm is so far removed from even a decade ago because of Trump that base rates for political predictions are almost always useless. Unless we are talking about Chinese politics where predictability is actually part of the way the system is designed and controlled. You are much less likely to have predictable outlier events (or any for that matter) when there is censorship on that scale.