Will Manifold Markets require Proof of Humanity by the end of 2022?
69
197
Ṁ203
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO
This market resolves to "yes" if, at anytime during 2022, Manifold Markets announces that it has, or will, require proof of humanity in order to create an account, or to enable any additional features. If Manifold Markets states that it will require proof of humanity (by way of a public statement), but then changes it's mind (by way of a later public statement), the market will resolve to "no". There is no requirement for the proof of humanity feature to be implemented by the end of 2022. #ManifoldMarkets Jan 13, 11:14pm: #Crypto #Blockchain Jan 14, 9:13am: #FeatureRequest Jan 14, 1:03pm: To answer Austin's question, I was thinking specifically of blockchain-based proof of humanity. So https://www.proofofhumanity.id would count (as would any other blockchain-based method), but the other forms of authentication (Twitter, email, phone number, govt ID, credit card) would not. Furthermore, I think that's the most fair way to resolve the question, given how I've tagged it
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bought Ṁ10 of YES
There are some market shenanigans that are happening right now that would really be tamped down with proof of humanity.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
in my not official opinion, the majority of the chance of this resides in worlds where we need sybil resistance for other features on manifold that would otherwise be vulnerable (quadratic funding, representational voting, etc)
bought Ṁ1 of NO
this specific blockchain/scam is unlikely to be added but I do not really trust that it will be correctly resolved
predicted YES
@M What makes this a "scam?" It seems like blockchain-based proof of humanity has a genuine use case outside of fraud, so it doesn't seem like a "scam."
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I don't get the desire to add some random scammy-looking blockchain system to MM. Seems like OP tries to advertise some web3 grift.
predicted YES
@hagi This doesn't seem to be a "grift;" this seems to be a genuine product with a real-world application.
bought Ṁ40 of NO
The "or to enable any additional features" branch has a non-negligible chance -- a simple 'badge' integration with a proof-of-humanity system would be low cost but low priority. But otherwise "require" seems like it goes against the grain of the fast-onboarding design, single-click signup flow, etc.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Copying this update from the description, where it will be possibly more visible: Jan 14, 1:03pm: To answer Austin's question, I was thinking specifically of blockchain-based proof of humanity. So https://www.proofofhumanity.id would count (as would any other blockchain-based method), but the other forms of authentication (Twitter, email, phone number, govt ID, credit card) would not. Furthermore, I think that's the most fair way to resolve the question, given how I've tagged it. To specifically answer Tamuz's question, I don't think reducing starting capital, on it's own, resolves this question.
bought Ṁ50 of YES
I think having the the starting capital reduced untill Prof of humanity is a good idea. I feel confident in some version of this being implemented. Can the market owner confirm if this would qualify for this market.
bought Ṁ5 of YES
(note: NOT a public statement in either direction) I'm curious what proof of humanity means here, both "what did Jiaobei intend" and "what would y'all be interested in"? Note that we already require Google sign-in and default to real names. 1. Literally https://www.proofofhumanity.id/ 2. Any additional form of authentication. Some options: - Twitter - Email - Phone Number - Govt ID - Credit Card Tentatively, we were thinking of dropping the initial starting capital to M$ 100, and then granting you more as your humanity is more "proven". (again, not a final public statement!)

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