Will an inconsistency in the Calculus of Inductive Constructions be found before 2050?
11
1kṀ9432049
9%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Calculus of Inductive Constructions is the formal system underlying the Coq proof assistant (see https://coq.github.io/doc/v8.9/refman/language/cic.html).
This will resolve to YES if a proof of a contradiction is published in a peer-reviewed scientific conference or journal on computer proof assistants or a similar area, such as Logic in Computer Science, or if a majority vote of at least 5 researchers in the field of computer proof assistants agree that such a result published elsewhere is correct, before the start of 2050. Otherwise, this will resolve to NO at the start of 2050.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Related questions
Related questions
Will an inconsistency in ZFC be found before 2050?
9% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2035?
65% chance
Will the problem of heuristic arguments still be an open problem by 2026?
74% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2050?
61% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
34% chance
Will a natural example of Khinchin's property be found before 2040?
50% chance
Will the consistency of the First Order Theory beyond Higher Order Set Theory be determined by EOY 2050?
50% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2100?
80% chance
By the end of year 2025, will a counter-example to the Collatz Conjecture be provided that is less than a googolplex?
3% chance
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2075?
87% chance