This market will resolve to the proportion of yes and no of a poll int he next week, don’t vote with financial interests though, I want true community reaction.
Here is the market: https://manifold.markets/evan/is-charlie-kirk-dead#clhinh0bndw
A thread for context:
https://manifold.markets/evan/will-i-ever-be-late-to-pay-back-a-l#aw0377y397h
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The poll used for resolution is this one: https://manifold.markets/JeromeHPowell/do-you-believe-evan-should-have-bee-gII8Zcs80p?r=SmVyb21lSFBvd2VsbA
Resolves to that poll's Yes/No proportions.
Please vote your genuine beliefs (not financial interests).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ628 | |
| 2 | Ṁ260 | |
| 3 | Ṁ114 | |
| 4 | Ṁ38 | |
| 5 | Ṁ28 |
People are also trading
@traders vote with your genuine beliefs in this poll
@Mrdudeguy yea, it’’s a long story, but long story short, he crashed out and made billions of mana illegally , I’m fairly confident in saying that you won’t need to repay that debt
@JeromeHPowell Wow. Well thanks for the info. Is there a market/post where someone describes what happened in detail?
@JeromeHPowell I guess my last question is how he made all the mana? Is it just through new accounts or some glitch?
And thanks for all the info. I haven't joined the manifold disc. But I probably should.
@Mrdudeguy yea, so he basically found a glitch that allows him to make private markets and used alt accounts to double his money exponentially using alt accounts that took negative balances, he then basically bet every market up or down to 0 or 99% using millions and millions of mana, they eventually paused all trading on the site and restored it to 2pm that day
@JeromeHPowell Oh yeah, I remember seeing some spikes on markets a while ago. Is that why he was taking all those loans? Seems like it was a pretty intricate plan.
@Mrdudeguy not really, he payed them all of and got pissed of by some overzealous mod action and went ham on manifold
@JeromeHPowell For future markets, I think it would be good practice to write in the description that you will close before the displayed closing date and best practice to provide a hash of the planned closing time for later verification.
@4fa yep, totally get that, made this market obviously in a rush but will do for future markets for sure, what’s the hash thing….sorry for not knowing but sounds interesting?
@JeromeHPowell Here's an online tool: https://emn178.github.io/online-tools/sha256.html
For example, 4abbe843f9d969c674a61a812174d3f2b2ae5c38ad08d33368d9ff492c4fcd07 is the output for "closes 17 Sept 2025, 02:55 UTC" without the quotes. If you add things to the input text, it becomes nearly impossible to brute force reverse engineer. So, bf6a9f2b61436dc5d1d4f7d95b77b8c16280bb86c1106ede1ad674e71fafc97f is the output for "I will try to close on 17 Sept 2025, 02:55 UTC".
@JeromeHPowell It's basically a one-way function and people don't know what extra text you added until you reveal it.
@traders vote with your genuine beliefs in this poll