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@devonsmeven was that a misclick?

@Yev yeah

@devonsmeven How much did you lose?

https://www.theverge.com/2022/10/1/23382367/artemis-1-launch-nasa-officially-delayed-until-november

https://spacenews.com/sls-to-roll-back-to-vab-as-hurricane-approaches-florida/

NASA did not give a new launch date for the mission when it announced the rollback. However, launching in late October may be challenging depending on the amount of time spent in the VAB, where technicians are likely to perform work such as replacing batteries on the SLS flight termination system. Once it rolls back to the pad, the SLS would be ready for another launch attempt in about a week and a half.

I think 8% is too low. There's still October 17 – October 31 launch window.

Betting hard on Eric Berger's prediction

That's a bleak forecast right there:
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/5ef49d14d6fa75c9dff0a704b55e34c0508ee35e5bab186fb5f800fa680e6693

Sooner, perhaps?

https://manifold.markets/MattP/will-artemis-i-launch-by-the-end-of-789dc52e026c

(apologies if this is a dupe, comments are behaving weirdly for me right now)

@MattP I chose Oct 4 and Oct 31 as deadlines because that's when the next two launch windows close. Sep 30 is right in the middle of a window, so it is less meaningful. But the more markets the merrier!

@Yev that's not what I'm seeing!

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/09/1121917791/nasa-eyes-late-september-for-its-next-attempt-to-launch-the-artemis-moon-mission

@MattP I was using https://www.nasa.gov/feature/artemis-i-mission-availability

But it looks like Oct 1-4 have been ruled out so P(launch before Sep 30) ≈ P(launch before Oct 4).

@MattP https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/09/12/nasa-adjusts-dates-for-artemis-i-cryogenic-demonstration-test-and-launch-progress-at-pad-continues/

NASA has adjusted the targeted dates for a cryogenic demonstration test and to the next launch opportunities for Artemis I, the first integrated flight test of the Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft beyond the Moon. The agency will conduct the demonstration test no earlier than Wednesday, Sept. 21, and has updated its request for a launch opportunity Sept. 27, with a potential backup opportunity of Oct. 2 under review.