Who will be the next user banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?

Basic

Ṁ1363

resolved Nov 20

90%68%

Whoever posted https://manifold.markets/post/mumbai-escorts-services-in-mumbai98 (was deleted and author banned)

10%19%

Mister Business

9%Other

No one else is banned in 2022

0.2%

reegusevil

Resolves to the first person other than people listed below, who was banned in 2022.
If the person is only banned from making markets and commenting, that still counts.
If multiple people are banned at roughly the same time, I may resolve to all of them rather than just the first one.
If someone was banned, but no one has brought it to my attention by commenting on this market by the time the market resolved, that should not count as an incorrect resolution.

Previously banned (not necessarily in chronological order):

@EnopoletusHarding: /SneakySly/who-will-be-the-first-user-banned-f
@HieronymusBosch: /LivInTheLookingGlass/who-will-be-the-second-user-banned
@HamsterHawk: /Yev/who-will-be-the-third-user-banned-f
@Accountdeletionrequested (wasabi says they were technically banned rather than deleted, because account deletion didn't exist yet)
@AstrologerPranavShastri

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If multiple people are banned at roughly the same time, I may resolve to all of them rather than just the first one.

Resolving 90:10 because it looks like Mister Business was banned about 12 hours after the "escort services" spammer.

For the record, that was @PoorabiGupta

I think for future questions, it would be better if the question asked about next ban excluding new accounts that were created only for spam, something like that.

Spam post - looks like this ban happened before Mister Business but I didn't see it until after. ian said in discord: "deleted it and banned him, thanks!"

James: "I just banned Mister Business from posting on Manifold. He can still trade"

@wasabipesto points out that @Accountdeletionrequested was technically banned because account deletion was not implemented at that point. And @AstrologerPranavShastri was also banned. This makes one or more of the previous resolutions incorrect. How should I handle this situation?

@Yev I don't think Accountdeletionrequested was banned? Manifold admins doing a manual delete is different from a ban.

I guess AstrologerPranavShastri being banned means the title count is wrong, but that's no big deal. You could just change the question to who will be the next user banned between Nov 11 and Dec 31

Wasabi says it was technically implemented as a ban. I don't know the details.

The issue with AstrologerPranavShastri is that HamsterHawk was not the third person banned (but rather 4th or 5th).

Temporarily closing both markets; will reopen once I clarify the resolution criteria.

@Yev Reopening.

Can we clarify whether only permanent bans count, or also temporary bans? And also how much of a ban is required? Based on the previous resolutions, being banned from posting comments and/or markets seems to count, but is it and or or?

@jack I think banning from posting and/or creating markets should count. I'm not actually sure there is any other kind of ban.

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