Will another user be banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?

260Ṁ3243

resolved Nov 20

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves YES if anyone other than the people listed below is banned in 2022.

If the person is only banned from making markets and commenting, that still counts.
If someone was banned, but no one has brought it to my attention by commenting on this market by the time the market resolved, that should not count as an incorrect resolution.

Previously banned (not necessarily in chronological order):

@EnopoletusHarding: Who will be the first user banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?‌
@HieronymusBosch: Who will be the second user banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?‌
@HamsterHawk: Who will be the third user banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?‌
@Accountdeletionrequested (wasabi says they were technically banned rather than deleted, because account deletion didn't exist yet)
@AstrologerPranavShastri

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#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ124
2		Ṁ33
3		Ṁ21
4		Ṁ6
5		Ṁ3

3 Comments

7 Holders

11 Trades

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predictedYES 2y

480

Who will be the next user banned from Manifold Markets?

27%Other

10%

@jojothebanker ($$BILLIONS$$)

10%

310

How many users will be banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?18

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predictedYES 2y

Reopening after clarifying the resolution criteria.

Will a fourth user be banned from Manifold Markets in 2022?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

Will I be banned at least once on Manifold before the end of 2025?

6% chance

Will another Manifold Partner be banned before EOY 2025?

55% chance

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

🏅 Top traders

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People are also trading

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