This market will resolve early with probability 50%. Will it resolve early?
Interest Rates
33
28
Ṁ100
resolved Apr 9
Resolved
NO
When this market closes, I will flip a fair coin. If it lands heads, I will resolve this market to YES soon after closing. If it lands tails, I will resolve this market to NO about a year after closing. Mar 12, 10:00pm: I will go to https://blockexplorer.one/bitcoin/mainnet and take the rightmost digit of the first hash after this market closes. Even = heads = YES, odd = tails = NO. Mar 13, 12:16am: The hash is 00000000000000000009554288443c39f85f3e531e9e60c48db2d01a22585b81, which is odd. I'll resolve this market to NO in a year.
Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted NO

Wow, what a throwback! My NO bet was +EV in terms of raw value, but even though it paid off I should’ve bet YES since it’s a much smaller percent of my portfolio now.

predicted YES

Would anyone object to me resolving this NO 2 weeks early, to free up the money before the charity program is shut down?

predicted YES

@Yev I have YES shares, but no objection from me.

@Yev Hasn't almost all of that mana been loaned back by now anyway?

predicted YES

@IsaacKing Good point. Of course none of it matters since the charity program is not closing down.

predicted YES

Please do not add it to "Please Resolve" group. It's not supposed to resolve until March 2023.

bought Ṁ20 of NO
With loaned money I don’t care if it resolves early.
bought Ṁ20 of NO
I cast summon bigger fish.
bought Ṁ20 of YES
Gain 6 this week or lose 20 next year if the OP remembers lol. On borrowed money. Will take it, thanks.

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