IBM has consistently published quantum roadmap updates 2-3 times per quarter in 2025. VP Jay Gambetta publicly committed to Q1 2026 Nighthawk processor launch. IBM CEO Arvind Krishna stated "quantum advantage will happen by 2026." 300mm wafer transition accelerates production. This market resolves YES if IBM officially publishes blog/press release on ibm.com/quantum announcing: roadmap update, Nighthawk specifications, or quantum advantage progress metrics by February 17, 2026. Resolution source: IBM official channels (primary) or TechCrunch/Reuters/Bloomberg (secondary).
1,000People are also trading
I’ll take one last NO position given the remaining uncertainty. IBM is posting actively, but mostly software and ecosystem updates. The core Nighthawk specs were already disclosed in November and reiterated in early January. It remains unclear whether the Jan 26 post constitutes a genuinely new announcement under the market criteria, given that the official primary and secondary announcements occurred earlier. Still a few days left, so some uncertainty remains.
@Jefry resolves yes, https://www.ibm.com/quantum/blog/whats-new-q4-2025
published on 26 Jan, 2026 (this question was created on Jan 18th)
gives nighthawk specifications and specific cluster releases (ibm_boston)
@prismatic @Jefry We need to consider whether providing hardware specifications and announcing cluster releases is sufficient to qualify as “announcing a quantum roadmap update,” or whether this post is simply a quarterly recap and product/deployment announcement.
The “announcing” aspect in the blog may be key here, but Nighthawk and its core specifications (120 qubits, 218 couplers, square-lattice architecture) were already officially announced by IBM on November 12, 2025:
https://newsroom.ibm.com/2025-11-12-ibm-delivers-new-quantum-processors,-software,-and-algorithm-breakthroughs-on-path-to-advantage-and-fault-tolerance
@prismatic Given that the description is an Or statement, this looks like it should count to me.
@Panfilo Yes, it’s an OR statement.
But the key question is whether the Jan 26 post actually announced new Nighthawk specifications. Nighthawk and its core specifications were already officially announced in November. Additionally, a detailed product announcement including availability and full specifications was published on January 5, 2026 - a week before this market was created.
Given that, it’s worth clarifying whether the Jan 26 post constitutes a new announcement, or merely a recap of previously disclosed specifications
@Tantalost @Panfilo yeah I wasn't aware this was old information. I don't think it qualifies anymore :(