For ease of resolution, the tomatometer score will be fixed to those on the Rotten Tomatoes 2026 Oscars Ballot, show below and hosted at https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com/article/oscars-2026-ballot-print-your-ballot-complete-with-tomatometer-popcornmeter-scores/ Wins count for any category (so if Kate Hudson wins best actress in a leading role, Song Sung Blue (97% audience score) could potentially resolve YES, despite not being one of the options shown.)

I typically find the audience score more in line with my tastes, or I've only ever noticed a discrepancy in the cases where it was more in line with my tastes. Notable discrepancies on the nominations include Avatar, Frankenstein, Hamnet (high audience, low critic) vs One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Marty Supreme, Sirat (high critic, low audience).

I don't feel like putting up all answers, so I've just put up ones that seem likely to win and have above 90%, so feel free to answer your own. If there is a tie (for example Kokuho and F1 both win, but Kpop Demon Hunters does not), both will resolve yes.

Does that imply that you should bet the farm on Kpop Demon Hunters and short everything else? Yes, but if you do that, you should leave a comment letting me know which of these movies are actually good, because this was supposed to be a thinly veiled recommendation thread. I will not be betting in this market.