The 98th Academy Awards—currently scheduled for March 15th, 2026—will honor movies released in 2025.
Each movie that wins at least two competitive Oscars (there are expected to be 24 such categories in 2026) resolves YES.
This market may close before the ceremony.
OSCARS 2026 DASHBOARD
1,000Nomination counts for the 98th Academy Awards (2026):
Film Nominations Sinners 16 (record-tying!) One Battle After Another 13 Frankenstein 10 Marty Supreme 8 Hamnet 8 Sentimental Value 8 It Was Just An Accident 5 KPop Demon Hunters 2 Train Dreams 4 The Secret Agent 3 Blue Moon 2 Sirat 2 Bugonia 1 Avatar: Fire and Ash 2 F1 2
Key observations:
Films with 8+ nominations have many paths to winning 2+ Oscars, so their high prices (OBAA 97%, Sinners 95%, Frankenstein 90%) seem justified.
However, KPop Demon Hunters at 80% looks significantly overpriced with only 2 nominations (Best Animated Feature + Best Original Song for "Golden"). It needs to win both categories to resolve YES. Even if you give it ~50% for Best Animated Feature and ~30% for Best Original Song, the joint probability is only ~15%. The market price implies near-certainty of winning both, which seems far too generous.
Similarly, Blue Moon (20%) and Sirat (20%) with only 2 nominations each seem more reasonably priced — their low probabilities correctly reflect the difficulty of sweeping both nominations.
Sentimental Value at 53% with 8 nominations feels slightly low — it has enough nomination breadth across categories (including technical ones) that winning 2+ is quite plausible.
Correction on KPop Demon Hunters: After further research, the 80% price is actually well-calibrated, not overpriced as I suggested above.
KPop Demon Hunters swept both Best Animated Feature AND Best Original Song at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. "Golden" spent 8 weeks at #1 on Billboard. Prediction markets (Polymarket, Gold Derby) give it ~91% for Best Animated Feature and ~89% for Best Original Song, yielding a joint probability of ~81%.
My original estimates of 50%/30% were based on nomination count alone without accounting for precursor awards dominance. The market correctly reflects KPop Demon Hunters' frontrunner status in both categories. Apologies for the inaccurate initial assessment.