Nomination counts for the 98th Academy Awards (2026):

Film Nominations Sinners 16 (record-tying!) One Battle After Another 13 Frankenstein 10 Marty Supreme 8 Hamnet 8 Sentimental Value 8 It Was Just An Accident 5 KPop Demon Hunters 2 Train Dreams 4 The Secret Agent 3 Blue Moon 2 Sirat 2 Bugonia 1 Avatar: Fire and Ash 2 F1 2

Key observations:

Films with 8+ nominations have many paths to winning 2+ Oscars, so their high prices (OBAA 97%, Sinners 95%, Frankenstein 90%) seem justified.

However, KPop Demon Hunters at 80% looks significantly overpriced with only 2 nominations (Best Animated Feature + Best Original Song for "Golden"). It needs to win both categories to resolve YES. Even if you give it ~50% for Best Animated Feature and ~30% for Best Original Song, the joint probability is only ~15%. The market price implies near-certainty of winning both, which seems far too generous.

Similarly, Blue Moon (20%) and Sirat (20%) with only 2 nominations each seem more reasonably priced — their low probabilities correctly reflect the difficulty of sweeping both nominations.

Sentimental Value at 53% with 8 nominations feels slightly low — it has enough nomination breadth across categories (including technical ones) that winning 2+ is quite plausible.

Correction on KPop Demon Hunters: After further research, the 80% price is actually well-calibrated, not overpriced as I suggested above.

KPop Demon Hunters swept both Best Animated Feature AND Best Original Song at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. "Golden" spent 8 weeks at #1 on Billboard. Prediction markets (Polymarket, Gold Derby) give it ~91% for Best Animated Feature and ~89% for Best Original Song, yielding a joint probability of ~81%.

My original estimates of 50%/30% were based on nomination count alone without accounting for precursor awards dominance. The market correctly reflects KPop Demon Hunters' frontrunner status in both categories. Apologies for the inaccurate initial assessment.