How many of Trump’s nominees to head government agencies will be publicly accused of sex crimes by Inauguration Day?
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Plus
8
Ṁ1306
resolved Jan 20
100%27%
3
4%
0
6%
1
39%
2
11%
4
12%
5 or more

Resolves on news reports from at least one of:

• ABC

• CBS

• NBC

• PBS

• NPR

• CNN

• Fox

• MSNBC

• Associated Press

• New York Times

• Washington Examiner

• Wall Street Journal

• USA Today

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Multiple news outlets have reported allegations of sex crimes by Robert Kennedy Jr., Pete Hegseth, and Matt Gaetz. Each of these were nominees to head government agencies. Elon Musk has also been accused, however the Department of Government Efficiency is not an official government agency.

By my estimation, currently Pete Hegseth and RFK count. My own opinion on my below question is that resolution of this market should wait until the official nominations are submitted to the senate; a "nominee" is whoever is submitted as a nominee for senate confirmation (at least for those positions which require senate confirmation)

What counts as a nominee? Is Matt Gaetz counted?

@JeffBerman The headline says "to nominate". He was planned to be nominated. He withdrew from consideration.

In an informal sense, any utterance by Trump indicating an intention to try and place someone at the head of an agency could be said to be a "nomination". However, a formal nomination is when you are submitted to the Senate for confirmation.

There are multiple news reports of Gaetz’s nomination.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/13/politics/matt-gaetz-attorney-general/index.html

@JeffBerman Please ctrl-F "nomin" in the article you just linked to see that literally all usages of the word are about his intention to nominate to the senate in the future.

"The selection, which will be subject to Senate approval once Gaetz is formally nominated by Trump,"

"Trump announced his intention to nominate Gaetz as attorney general"

"He promised the Senate will 'vet' and 'look at' all of Trump’s nominees during the confirmation process"

For the event that is actually being reported, the words used are "picked", "chosen", "selected". CNN in your article is actually being fairly precise. I wouldn't be surprised if you could find sources which are being less precise; I'm glad you led with these.

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