Which Trump opponents will face official DOJ investigations by October 1st, 2025? | Manifold

Which Trump opponents will face official DOJ investigations by October 1st, 2025?

21

1.2kṀ6901

Oct 2

35%

Jack Smith

17%

Alvin Bragg

12%

Fani Willis

10%

Hunter Biden

10%

Merrick Garland

7%

Joe Biden

6%

Kamala Harris

6%

Hillary Clinton

6%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Resolved

YES

Letitia James

Market resolves YES for each individual/entity that has an official DOJ investigation opened against them under a Trump administration. Resolution source: Official DOJ press releases and statements (justice.gov/news).

Update 2025-08-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Only investigations opened by the Department of Justice (DOJ) count.
- Investigations led by the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) are considered independent of DOJ and will not count.
- Therefore, the current Jack Smith OSC investigation would resolve NO.

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The current Jack Smith situation is weird but does not technically qualify because its not a DOJ investigation, its an OSC investigation, and the OSC is independent of the DOJ. There's absolutely no practical difference but the question wording would make it currently resolve NO.

@Balasar does this count? It seems so.

https://www.npr.org/2025/08/08/nx-s1-5496351/letitia-james-justice-department-subpoena-trump

bought Ṁ100 YES

@Balasar Nice. Thanks.

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Will Trump be considered a fugitive from justice in any US jurisdiction by the end of 2025?

Will a special prosecutor be appointed by a federal court to prosecute a member of the Trump administration in 2025?

Will the DOJ decline to prosecute a member of the Trump administration who is held in contempt of court in 2025?

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