How many of the people Trump announces he will nominate do not ultimately serve in that role?
40
1kṀ95202026
1%
Zero: everyone will serve
98.3%
One or more
98%
Two or more
67%
Three or more
26%
Four or more
5%
Five or more
4%
Six or more
Market will resolve based on the first person to serve in a role for which Trump has announced his planned nominee. That is, if in 2024 Rubio announces he would prefer not to be Sec’y of State in order to spend more time with his beloved yaks, but he ends up as Sec’y of State in 2027, he would count for this. If he somehow ends up Sec’y of the Interior instead, that would also count. (As two, actually, since it would displace another announcee.)
Update 2025-28-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Includes only nominees announced via Truth Social or Twitter posts
Primarily includes positions requiring Senate confirmation, but not limited to
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