Will Ineffable Intelligence release a paper or model before SSI?
2
Ṁ250Ṁ502030
59%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If neither company does either before 2030 this resolves n/a.
releasing a model can involve either open sourcing the weights or providing access via API or user interface.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
When will SSI release their first model?
6/25/27
When will Safe Superintelligence (SSI) release its first product?
Will SSI (Ilya's company) offer a product before someone creates ASI?
60% chance
Thinking Machines Lab releases product before Safe Superintelligence?
93% chance
2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]
37% chance
Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?
18% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $100M model by 2030?
69% chance
AI: Will someone open-source a $1B model by 2030?
44% chance