Will Claude 3.5 Opus have a higher Chat Arena Elo than GPT-5?
26
100Ṁ10202026
6%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Note that if OpenAI ends of changing their naming scheme to something else, I will count it if the model appears to be the one mentioned in this blog post: https://openai.com/index/openai-board-forms-safety-and-security-committee/
Additionally, it will only be resolved yes if 3.5 Opus sustains its position for the entire first month after both models are listed in the leaderboards, so if it passes GPT-5 temporarily due to noise it will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
Will more users subscribe to Claude Pro than ChatGPT Plus at EOY 2024?
4% chance
What will Claude 3.5 Opus's reported 0-shot performance on GPQA Diamond be upon release?
Will Claude 3.5 Opus beat OpenAI's best released model on the arena.lmsys.org leaderboard?
4% chance
What will be the *first* ELO Rating of Claude 3.5 Opus in the LMSYS Arena?
Will Claude Opus be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard two years from today (3/10/24)?
11% chance
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
9% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be able to draw me in tic-tac-toe while playing as O at least 1/3 of the time?
32% chance
Will Claude 3.5 Opus be available via API by end of 2025?
30% chance
would claude 4 beat gpt5 in a game of go?
42% chance