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MANIFOLD
Will Charlie Kirk die before 2026?
77
Ṁ200Ṁ48k
resolved Sep 10
Resolved
YES

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US Politics
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World
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2024 US Presidential Election
Charlie Kirk
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This shit is so stupid

NYT has updated their article title to "fatally shot", so I think this can safely resolve.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2025/09/10/us/charlie-kirk-shot-utah

bought Ṁ5 NO

Buying some NO, isn't Trump still the only source on this?

sold Ṁ15 NO

@Robincvgr nvm

@mods resolve

@realDonaldTrump im going to wait a little bit, in case there was a false report

@realDonaldTrump also, creator is active, don't ping mods

https://x.com/BrighamTomco/status/1965871381419352506

@Social_Anthrax can’t find any other sources confirming this so idk

opened a Ṁ1,000 NO at 70% order

Only 2 to 6% of bullet wounds in the neck result in mortality. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/3981677/

bought Ṁ10 YES

@EmilyConn What percentage hit major arteries?

@EmilyConn Most shootings in the US are with 22-caliber pistols. It seems like Charlie was probably shot with a rifle, given some reports I saw about the distance from which he was shot. Much more destructive rounds.

Not saying the probability of him dying is 2-6%. Probably much higher (50%+). But bullet wounds are generally less fatal than people think.

reposted

He was shot

https://edition.cnn.com/us/live-news/charlie-kirk-shot-utah-09-10-25

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