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MANIFOLD
If the U.S. unemployment doesn't exceed 30% due to AI before 2040, which of these will be major reasons why?
1
Ṁ150Ṁ20
2040
22%
AI capabilities aren't good enough to automate a significant fraction of currently-existing jobs
12%
Legislation is implemented to mitigate job losses due to AI
12%
Computer Chip Supply chains are so constrained the marginal cost of making more chips exceeds the marginal cost of labor
32%
There is enough demand for jobs that require "human touch" (like therapists or sex workers) that the bulk of the population is able to find work despite losing their old occupations
12%
Intelligence is cheap, but robotics is expensive enough for it to be infeasible for AI to manual labor jobs
12%
People leave the workforce entirely due to receiving some sort of UBI after AI automates nearly every job, resulting in no surging unemployment

Resolves N/A if the threshold is in fact exceeded

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