I want to get a sense of how much overlap there is between these two platforms and the AI Safety community, and other people's perceptions of it, since some things I'm trying / planning to try rely quite strongly on it.

In two weeks I will close this market and create a poll with the above options, plus a "see results" option. This market will then resolve one week later to the percentage each has of the overall vote, discounting the "see results" option.

The poll text will state that people should consider themselves to be a part of that platform / community, if they spend at least an average of 1hr per week engaging with it. This means that not everyone is guaranteed to self-describe as part of the Manifold community, as they may use it less than this.

Obviously poll respondents will be a biased sample from Manifold users, and restricted to people with Manifold accounts, but I will also link to this poll from LessWrong and two frequented AI Safety related slacks to try and boost participation from these communities amongst those who have Manifold accounts but rarely engage with it.