Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if Pete Hegseth remains in office as the head of the United States Department of War (historically and still frequently referred to as the Department of Defense, with the officeholder officially titled "Secretary of War" or "Secretary of Defense") at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET) on July 31, 2026.

If Pete Hegseth has officially resigned, been fired, been replaced, or has otherwise vacated the office on or before July 31, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.

Notes:

• An announcement of a future resignation or departure scheduled to take effect after July 31, 2026, will resolve to YES, provided he is still actively in office at the specified deadline.

• Temporary leaves of absence where he remains the official officeholder will resolve to YES.

• Official statements from the White House, the Department of War (via war.gov or defense.gov), or major national news organizations (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters) will be used as the primary sources for resolution.

Background

Pete Hegseth was sworn in as the 29th Secretary of Defense on January 25, 2025. Following an Executive Order on September 5, 2025, the department's name was officially changed back to its historical moniker, the Department of War, making Hegseth the Secretary of War. During his tenure, Hegseth has led a wide-ranging overhaul of senior military leadership. In July 2026, he made headlines for launching a joint DOJ-Pentagon task force to prosecute press leaks and initiating mandatory testosterone screening for active-duty troops over the age of 30.

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