Resolution criteria

This market resolves based on whether Pete Hegseth is convicted and imprisoned for any crime by December 31, 2030. The specific year of imprisonment determines which answer resolves yes. If Hegseth is imprisoned in multiple years, the market resolves to the earliest year. The market resolves to "Not before 31 December 2030" if no imprisonment occurs by that date.

Resolution will be determined by official court records and credible news reporting of a conviction and subsequent incarceration. Hegseth was sworn in as secretary of defense on January 25, 2025.

Background

Hegseth is being investigated over a verbal order he allegedly gave regarding a September 2 strike on a boat presumed to be carrying drugs in Caribbean waters, with sources saying Hegseth gave the order to "kill everybody" in the mission. The Pentagon inspector general found that Hegseth violated protocol when he used his personal phone for official communications. Hegseth paid a confidential settlement to a woman who accused him of sexually assaulting her at a Republican women's conference in October 2017, though no charges were ever filed.

Considerations

Federal agency heads who rely on their attorneys in good faith are presumed to be immune from the law, which may be why Hegseth has stated that lawyers had advised the mission's commanders. The likelihood of criminal prosecution depends heavily on whether the Department of Justice, currently led by Trump appointees, pursues charges. Congressional investigation into potential illegal orders is unlikely, and prosecutorial discretion will be a critical factor in determining whether any charges are brought.