Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?

Examples include:

1. A new viral threat that ends with government regulation similar to 2020

2. A new war (or Israel/Ukraine heats up to the point that there are significant U.S. boots on the ground)

3. Major chains of riots (like the BLM riots of summer 2020 - not a single riot, or a brief couple of days of rioting)

4. Economic crisis akin to 2008/2020 - not just a drop in markets

In the end, this will be based on my judgment, and because of that I will not bet on this market.