Will there be an active war over Antarctica before 2100 with at least 10 casualties? | Manifold

Will there be an active war over Antarctica before 2100 with at least 10 casualties?

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47

Ṁ2970

2100

38%

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1W

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Slightly shorter term horizon:

Will a city be built in Antarctica for permanent human residence by 2030?

Wow it's ridiculous

When you say "over Antarctica", do you mean a conflict over control of regions in Antarctica or that it happens geographically over Antarctica, irrespective of what the reason for the conflict is?

@Arinbjorn First

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-4% 1d46% chance

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