What will be true about asteroid mining by end of 2060?
14
1kṀ23992060
95%
Extraction of at least 100 kg of water from an asteroid
86%
At least 1,000 kg mined (any material)
80%
At least 10 kg mined with mechanical drilling
72%
An asteroid was transported into Earth orbit for mining
66%
At least 100,000 kg mined (any material)
50%
At least 10 kg mined with optical mining (lasers or solar reflectors)
50%
At least 10 kg mined with explosives (including nuclear explosions)
39%
At least 10 kg mined with biomining (breakdown by bacteria)
9%
An asteroid was crashed on the moon for mining
6%
At least 10 kg mined with nano-machines
For this question, "mining" means any material extraction from asteroids or other small solar system bodies. The extracted material needs to be intended for industrial processing, research or direct use in a space mission. It does not have to be transported back to Earth.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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