How many years until Manifold Markets is banned in China?

9

100Ṁ915

resolved Sep 2

Resolved

0.08

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

If Manifold Markets is still generally accessible in China at the end of 4 years, I will resolve to 4.

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Welp, that was fast! A partial ban mean Manifold is not "generally accessible" as specified in the description, so I'll resolve this!

We may have been banned now? Someone needs to check. https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-manifold-have-at-least-20-acti#pAQfGkKwFcYNrEpLBrrQ

@SG Manifold can be opened from China 'randomly'. Means Manifold not "officially" banned in China, but randomly banned. “China‘s Greater Wall” uses a black box algorithm that randomly banned some sites. Usually these sites will be banned just for months. Chinese political related market on Manifold contained large amount of censored/sensitive Chinese keywords which can easily triggered this random-banned.

If Manifold goes multi-language and this time targets on Chinese, I'm pretty sure Manifold will be manually put into their forever-banned list immediately.

@stormtk293 'Randomly Banned': Means site being blocked in random districts. Could be certain cities, or larger scale (certain provinces).

@stormtk293 @JamesGrugett I think a partial, randomized ban is enough to resolve this market.

Do we know if it is already banned?

@MartinRandall it is not currently

How is Manifold going to handle the language issue? Is English going to be the official language?

Of course, I hope our site doesn't get banned!

@JamesGrugett This does seem like an easy market to move....

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