How many years until Manifold Markets is banned in China?
Worldโ€ขChina
9
4
แน€100
resolved Sep 2
Resolved
0.08

If Manifold Markets is still generally accessible in China at the end of 4 years, I will resolve to 4.

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Welp, that was fast! A partial ban mean Manifold is not "generally accessible" as specified in the description, so I'll resolve this!

bought แน€155 of LOWER

@SG Manifold can be opened from China 'randomly'. Means Manifold not "officially" banned in China, but randomly banned. โ€œChinaโ€˜s Greater Wallโ€ uses a black box algorithm that randomly banned some sites. Usually these sites will be banned just for months. Chinese political related market on Manifold contained large amount of censored/sensitive Chinese keywords which can easily triggered this random-banned.

If Manifold goes multi-language and this time targets on Chinese, I'm pretty sure Manifold will be manually put into their forever-banned list immediately.

@stormtk293 'Randomly Banned': Means site being blocked in random districts. Could be certain cities, or larger scale (certain provinces).

@stormtk293 @JamesGrugett I think a partial, randomized ban is enough to resolve this market.

Do we know if it is already banned?
@MartinRandall it is not currently
How is Manifold going to handle the language issue? Is English going to be the official language?
Of course, I hope our site doesn't get banned!
@JamesGrugett This does seem like an easy market to move....