Which celebrity will die last in chronological order
Which celebrity will die last in chronological order
29
5.6kṀ79022100
5%
Ali Khamenei (Apr 19, 1939)
5%
Warren Buffet (Aug 30, 1930)
6%
King Charles (Nov 14, 1948)
6%
Mel brooks (Jun 28, 1926)
8%
Nancy Pelosi (Mar 26, 1940)
8%
Dick Van Dyke (Dec 13, 1925)
9%
Rudy Giuliani (May 28, 1944)
11%
Martin Scorsese (Nov 17, 1942)
11%
Jill Biden (Jun 3, 1951)
11%
Joe Biden (Nov 20, 1942)
12%
Donald Trump (Jun 14, 1946)
12%
Vladimir Putin (Oct 7, 1952)
14%
Mitch McConnell (Feb 20, 1942)
16%
Bill Gates (Oct 28, 1955)
17%
Tom Hanks (Jul 9, 1956)
17%
Michael Bloomberg (Feb 14, 1942)
18%
Michael Jordan (Feb 17, 1963)
19%
Paul McCartney (Jun 18, 1942)
20%
Quentin Tarantino (Mar 27, 1963)
21%
Bill Clinton (Aug 19, 1946)
Each Person Will go up one percentage point for when they die
starting at 1% and working upward.
1% dies first
2% dies second
...
100% dies last
The last Celebrity who dies will resolve 100% even if they haven't died yet.
If I become convinced that All humans will live forever no matter what I will resolve all to 100%. (I assume this has an extremely low chance of happening)
If the close date needs I will extend it.
The date in the parentheses is their Birth Date
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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