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The full transcript, from NYT, of everything that got said: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/08/us/politics/state-of-the-union-transcript-biden.html

Like, this is the post-event full transcript — as opposed to the scripted version of the prepared remarks, which TIME and others posted. (The way you can tell is that "Snickers" gets mentioned in the full version.)

So, you can use this to check — the answer was definitely "E".

For those who are interested, here are the other markets in this set:

• (1) "Will EVERY letter be used at least TWICE?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/will-every-letter-in-the-alphabet-b

• (2) "What'll the most-used LETTER be?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-letter-will-be-used-the-most-i

• (3) "What will the most-used CONSONANT be?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-consonant-will-be-used-the-mos

• (4) "What will the LEAST-used letter be?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-letter-will-be-used-the-least (Like, the "least-used" question is by FAR the most tricky.)

It's E. 100%.

In any piece of normal English text that's long enough, it's absolutely E by a looooooong margin.

ETAOIN SHRDLU is a way to remember the frequency (but I think C's actually above U)

@PaintspotInfez What about consonant

T.

If not T, then N.

It's near-impossible for it to be anything else in a piece of normal English text of a certain length.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letter_frequency

I wish people would be quiet and let me profit though cough cough

@PaulDwyer ...on second thought, I should've kept my mouth shut, so that other folks would bet on near-impossible options like A and then I could keep betting up the E option indefinitely.

are you guys as confident on the lower end of the spectrum

@JamesF Ohoho, now THERE'S a market that's not an immediately obvious singular answer! Nice!! Can't wait to see how this one turns out, omg.