This will resolve based on the transcript published by the NYT after the state of the union. Here is the 2023 transcript https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/biden-state-of-the-union-transcript.html
this would have resolved yes in 2023
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| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ137 | |
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| 3 | Ṁ16 | |
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The full transcript, from NYT, of everything that got said: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/08/us/politics/state-of-the-union-transcript-biden.html
Like, this is the post-event full transcript — as opposed to the scripted version of the prepared remarks, which TIME and others posted. (The way you can tell is that "Snickers" gets mentioned in the full version.)
So, you can use this to check — the answer was definitely YES, absolutely.
Given that he's probably going to accomplish this within the first 10 minutes of his speech — may you resolve this the moment he passes this threshold (i.e. if we provide a source that shows he's already achieved this, during the speech?)
@PaintspotInfez If you can provide a source I probably will but if I just hear it I will wait till the end
@JamesF Got it! Lol, I'll be sure to provide a source — because I've got 5,000 Mana riding on this market (since it's almost-guaranteed to happen)!
For those who are interested, here are the other markets in this set:
(1) "Will EVERY letter be used at least TWICE?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/will-every-letter-in-the-alphabet-b
(2) "What'll the most-used LETTER be?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-letter-will-be-used-the-most-i
(3) "What will the most-used CONSONANT be?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-consonant-will-be-used-the-mos
(4) "What will the LEAST-used letter be?" - https://manifold.markets/JamesF/what-letter-will-be-used-the-least (Like, the "least-used" question is by FAR the most tricky and most exciting.)
Wait, what do you mean "it only barely would've resolved yes (since X and Z only got 2 each)" in 2023???
In that speech, Z was used 17 times, and X was used 63 times.
Are you looking at the complete transcript? Or are you unable to access the full NYT article? (If so, you should probably find a NON-paywalled source to resolve the 2024 market with, so you yourself can read the full transcript.)
@JamesF - All good lol!
So, now that I know how many times the rarest letters appeared last year, it seems like it'll be an EASY yes this year. Can't wait!