Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Basic
19
3.3k
2027
65%
chance

Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital. Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy:
https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/
https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/

Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.

This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027. (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).

(For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)

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Agree on 2027 deadline being the obstacle here - but I reckon that the continued news coverage will give it enough momentum to have significant legal proceedings underway by 2027, at the very least.

bought Ṁ200 YES

2027 deadline seems tough but pressure on CCRC due to Malkinson and post office cases could get it there.

Her appeals were just denied so her only option is through an investigation into justice that was improperly served, I kind of doubt she will be out.

bought Ṁ200 YES
bought Ṁ100 YES

I think it's quite likely eventually; primarily unsure about the 2027 deadline... Should be interesting to see what the UK media discussion is like once reporting restrictions are removed

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relevant!

Some information; it is really hard to get an appeal/retrial in England. Significant new evidence has to come to light or the original trial has to be improperly conducted somehow. This isn't Australia, where courts of appeal can simply overrule jury verdicts because the verdict was transparently stupid and wrong.