Apart from just Manifold trading dynamics and a long time horizon... is there any reason this isn't close to 0%? Are there people out there that actually think she did it? @SimonGrayson @jskf ?

@bens I think juries tend to be more rational than the media, so while media reports certainly make it look like she didn't do it, I give significant weight to the fact that she was found guilty in court.

@IsaacKing hmm, idk about that at all. In this case, all the evidence was public. I don’t see any reason that the juries are more correct than the number of experts (including a panel of experts) that have examined this case.

It’s not just “media reports” that made her seem innocent (in many ways the opposite is true). It’s sophisticated investigative reporting and sober analyses of the evidence.

Very nervous about trading this before the inquiry, consensus now feels pretty skeptical of the convictions but that could easily change due to testimony from affected people (as irrational as that is)