Where will TSLA be at the end of December
Standard
11
Ṁ3893
resolved Mar 7
Resolved
YES
240-250
Resolved
NO
250-260
Resolved
NO
260-270
Resolved
NO
270-280
Resolved
NO
230-240
Resolved
NO
220-230
Resolved
NO
280-290
Resolved
NO
290-300
Resolved
NO
170-180
Resolved
NO
180-190
Resolved
NO
190-200
Resolved
NO
200-210
Resolved
NO
210-220
Resolved
NO
below 150

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Ṁ1,000
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I'll unresolve this but htere is a bug rn preventing me from doing so

Why was this question resolved? The NASDAQ is open until 4 pm (EST). Still 1.5 hours to go.

@Lion wait that's true it was due to close on december 31st, that seems like a misresolution

@TheBayesian Let's wait until close and then we'll know if it's a misresolution. 🤣

@Lion fair enough!

@TheBayesian Last month's question was involved in some drama as well and the creator doesn't seem to have the best rating either.

@Lion We can't unresolve these still

@SirCryptomind Well, and now?

@Lion Report user in Discord if this is a common thing they've done, and there is proof.
Maybe we can find a way to prevent this in the future.
David has been working hard updating Guidelines and such, so this will help I am sure.

@SirCryptomind Sorry, i don't have any clue of discord. In which channel should I write?

@SirCryptomind Thanks, done.

Wouldn't it be the right thing to at least mark the question as N/A? The user bought the "wrong" shares, and other users wouldn't lose Mana on this one. (If this question was resolved N/A, I'd lose Mana as well, so this isn't in my personal interest, as I'd profit from this question regardless of how it's resolved expect N/A.)


This is hilarious, couldn't it mean both 240-250 and 250-260 resolve YES?

@TheBayesian I never understand why they don't do one of these:


240.01-250
250.01-260
Or even simpler
240-249.99
250-259.99

good idea i’ll do that once i can afford it

it's up to you, but I would recommend NA'ing this market and remaking it with the options all in order and mutually exclusive (so we can sort by OLD and see them ordered in an intuitive way), and link them so that the total of all the options must add up to 100%. otherwise, myself and others can make a bunch of profits just betting no on everything, since every option being 50% is absurd obviously

@TheBayesian that’s why i originally the rest in percentages adding up to 100% in my previous markers

@JakeJowita I don't understand what the reasoning is connecting the two. but usually the reason we resolve MC to something that sums to 100% is that we know "something will happen" has 100% probability, and then we split off that 100% probability into the probability that singular, mutually exclusive events will occur. this is very convenient because it leads to a bunch of intuitive mathematical structures and greatness. if the market resolves to 100% of the thing that happened, and 100% of other stuff, that means there is 200% weighting total, and that leads to less intuitive weirdnesses, like betting 60% on something that's 40% likely to happen, because in the 60% of worlds where it doesn't happen, in expectation it's like gonna be worth 20%? it's much harder to think about and not the intuitive interpretation of probabilities that people usually use, and isn't as informative to people trying to get info out of these markets. dunno if all of that made sense

i’ll fix it but i can’t afford it right now