Helpful details:
Home currently for sale at $595K with Zestimate at $581.3K as of market creation (Sept 21, 2023).
Zestimate seems to be based on major quanitifiables (ie sqft, lot size, # of bedrooms and bathrooms) plus local market (ie location). The former would likely only shift if the new owner finishes the basement to allow its square footage to influence the total. Otherwise, basic renovations like redoing a kitchen or bathroom won't influence those quanifiables, so this should mostly track the localize market.
Background:
I'm making this market because:
My partner and I are potentially looking to buy a house in PDX and I want to outsource some research on the localized markets.
I think prediction markets are a good fit for real estate investing relative to typical securities prediction because imperfect information means there are more market discrepancies to exploit, and I haven't seen many housing questions on here and want to explore the idea.
I want to bring attention to concepts that would be used to evaluate this question like zoning, housing affordability, and land value/use. Estimates involve tracking the local markets as well as potential changes in policy like upzoning.
This might because one of several and I'm quite new to this, so I'm very open to any feedback on question/option wording/design for this or future similar questions.
Resolution:
Resolves to whichever bucket contains Zillow's Zestimate for this home on 1/1/2025, defaulting to the lower bucket if on two edges (ie read $600K-620K as $600,001-$620,000)
Resolves N/A if Zillow or Zestimates no longer exist on 1/1/2025 (I'll do my best to find the listing for this property if the link breaks but Zestimates seem to still exist). If Zillow/Zestimates are acruited or otherwise rebranded, it's up to judge's discretion if there is enough product continuity to call it the same measure.
If the house at this address is demolished and is replaced by a new building with the same address, the address' Zestimate will still be used. However, if the house is demolished but has not (yet) been replaced (or the replacement isn't yet reflected in the Zillow listing), resolves to N/A.