This market resolves YES if, before January 1, 2026, any European country (excluding Russia and its military allies) deploys military personnel in combat roles inside Ukraine, meaning:

• Ground forces engage in combat with Russian or Russian-backed forces.

• Artillery, air defense, or other military units operate weapons from within Ukraine.

• The deployment is officially acknowledged by the respective government or reported by credible sources (BBC, Reuters, The Guardian, Le Monde, Der Spiegel).

• It counts even if the deployment is temporary and forces withdraw quickly.

What Does NOT Count:

• Russia, Belarus, or any country deploying troops in support of Russia, even if falsely declaring the contrary.

• Military advisors, trainers, intelligence officers, or logistics personnel.

• Troops deployed for defensive purposes only (e.g., guarding embassies or humanitarian convoys).

• Secret/deniable operations unless later confirmed by official sources or major investigative reports published or referenced by at least 3 of the aforementioned publications.

• Peacekeeping missions under a non-combat UN mandate.

Resolution Process:

If uncertainty exists regarding a deployment’s combat status, the market will remain open until an official government statement or reliable investigative journalism clarifies the situation, published on more than two major news organizations, ideally across partisan lines, no further than March 2026.

If no such deployment occurs before January 1, 2026, the market resolves NO.

I will not bet on this market.