Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if no significant combat operations, shelling, or territorial shifts between Russian and Ukrainian forces are reported by major international news outlets (such as Reuters, Associated Press, or BBC News) for a continuous period of at least 7 days, beginning at 12:00 AM UTC on May 6, 2026, and ending at 11:59 PM UTC on May 12, 2026.

This market resolves to NO if any confirmed violation of the ceasefire, including kinetic military action by either side, is reported by these sources within the specified 7-day window.

Background

As of May 5, 2026, international reports regarding a formal ceasefire beginning May 6, 2026, should be monitored to confirm the terms and official announcements from both the Russian and Ukrainian governments. Traces of historical adherence to previous ceasefire attempts in this conflict have often been brief or limited in scope. Traders should monitor credible news wires for official statements and battlefield reports during the designated period.