The European Central Bank (ECB) has cut interest rates eight consecutive times since June 2024, bringing the deposit facility rate from 4% down to 2%. But everything has changed: the 2026 Iran war, the Strait of Hormuz crisis, and surging energy prices have pushed inflation expectations sharply higher across the eurozone.

In April 2026, the ECB held rates steady but signalled clearly that a rate hike was likely at the June 11 meeting. Le Monde reported the ECB is "preparing to raise interest rates, likely as soon as its next meeting." Markets are currently pricing a ~70% probability of a 25bp hike.

A rate hike on June 11 would be the first since 2023 and would directly impact mortgages, savings rates, and stock markets across Europe.

Resolves YES if the ECB announces an increase in its deposit facility rate at the June 11, 2026 meeting. Resolves NO if rates are held or cut. Verified instantly via ecb.europa.eu, the announcement is published within seconds of the decision.