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MANIFOLD
Average ECB Rate in 2026Q3?
1
Ṁ125Ṁ10
Sep 30
16%
below 1.75%
16%
[1.75, 2.0)%
35%
[2.0, 2.25)%
16%
[2.25, 2.5)%
16%
above 2.5%

What will be the average ECB deposit rate in the 3rd quarter of 2026? Intervals are left-inclusive.

Intervals are pre-selected based on markets that at the time of creation predict a tendency to rise rates rather than lower them.

Specifically refers to the deposit rate with this as the primary source: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html

Resolution: If the rate changes within the quarter I will calculate the average rate by number of days from the official data.

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