São Paulo is the largest, richest and nos important city of Brazil. This year, the city will have a mayor election. Mr. Ricardo Nunes is the actual mayor and will try to be re-elected, supported by former President, Jair Bolsonaro. His defiant is Mr. Guilherme Boulos, a radical leftist that enhance his visibility as coordinator and leader of homeless citizens in São Paulo. Now, he is a congressmen and is supported by the Party (partido dos Trabalhadores- Labor party) of President Lula. As a curiosity, Mr. Boulos choose a secretary of Mr. Nunes, called Marta Suplicy to be her Vice Mayor. Running for the political centrism we are going to have the young Ms. Tabata Amaral, from the Brazilian Socialist Party. It’s hard to understand the real jelly that defines Brazilian Parties and politicians. There’s no real idea logical orientation, only causalities to build some alliances around competitive names. So, the election will happen in 2 rounds, at October 6th and October 27th. The candidate needs to have 50% plus 1 vote to be elected, in the first or second round. Votes need to be valid, not included blanks, absention or null vote (it’s possible to voters register absurd votes if they want). The question is: who will win the election, considering the extreme polarization in São Paulo: Mr. Ricardo Nunes (actually not exactly recognized by people, because he heritaged the charge from Mr Bruno Covas, the mayor re-elected but dead by cancer 2 years ago), Mr Guilherme Boulos (feared by the middle class due to his story of private property invader), or Tabata Amaral, young federal deputy, well centered but inexperienced)?
Te competitors, Mr Ricardo Nunes and Mr. Guilherme Boulos will run in the Second round at October 27th. Durona the tirar round, A disruptive candidate, called Pablo Marçal, destabilized the election and galvanized 26% of the conservatives votes. Now, polls highlights that Mr. Ricardo Nunes will get 80% os these voters.
Pre-existing market on the same topic, for anyone who may be interested
https://manifold.markets/andyou/who-will-be-elected-mayor-of-sao-pa?r=Q2F0ZXJwaWRnZXk